Brazil runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula in polls before Sunday's vote
Most polls give Jair Bolsonaro's son a lead of one to six points over President Lula ahead of the October 25 runoff, but several show the race tightening. Brazil's electoral court has also given Meta 24 hours to prove it treats both campaigns equally.
At a glance
- Brazil's presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday, October 25, 2026.
- An average of 14 recent polls gives Flávio about 51% of valid votes and Lula about 49%; Datafolha has it 51–49 and Quaest 51.1–48.9.
- Flávio won the first round on October 4 with about 56.1 million votes to Lula's 53.9 million; several polls show the gap narrowing.
- Brazil's electoral court gave Meta 24 hours to prove it treats both campaigns equally after protesters accused it of interference.
Brazil heads into a knife-edge presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25. Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in most polls — but the race has been tightening.
The candidates
| Flávio Bolsonaro | Lula | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 42 | 80 |
| Party | PL (right) | PT (left) |
| First round (Oct 4) | 56,104,503 votes (1st) | 53,879,538 votes (2nd) |
| Main pitch | Crackdown on crime and drug trafficking, tax changes | Social programmes, workers' rights; seeking a fourth term |
What the polls say
Polls of valid votes show a close race, mostly within the margin of error:
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Flávio | Lula |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerp | Oct 15–19 | 53% | 47% |
| Real Time Big Data | Oct 15–19 | 52% | 48% |
| PoderData | Oct 16–18 | 52% | 48% |
| Datafolha | Oct 13–15 | 51% | 49% |
| Quaest | Oct 10–13 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Nexus | Oct 16–18 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Vox Brasil | Oct 15–17 | 49% | 51% |
| Data Ranking | Oct 14–16 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
An average of the latest poll from 14 pollsters gives Flávio about 51% and Lula about 49%. Several polls showed the gap narrowing between October 8 and 16, and none fully captures the candidates' only TV debate on October 18.
The debate
In their single debate, Lula attacked Flávio for backing his father's COVID-19 response, saying 716,000 people died "due to the government's irresponsibility". Flávio argued that Lula's Workers' Party had governed for two decades without fixing healthcare.
Meta under scrutiny
Protesters gathered outside Meta's offices in São Paulo on Monday accusing the company of "electoral interference" by limiting the reach of Lula's posts on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp while boosting Bolsonaro's. Brazil's electoral court gave Meta 24 hours to prove it treats both campaigns equally, as the law requires.
Background
Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running until 2030 and is under house arrest, serving a 27-year sentence linked to efforts to overturn his 2022 election defeat. His son has carried the family's political movement. Lula recently won a major victory when Congress approved giving workers two paid days off a week.
The issues
- Crime and security — Flávio's strongest theme.
- Cost of living — high prices and interest rates.
- Relations with the United States — tense under Lula after US tariffs.
- Democracy — the legacy of the January 2023 riots and Jair Bolsonaro's conviction.
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and a major exporter of food and commodities to Asia, including to China and South Asia. A Bolsonaro victory would continue the region's shift to the right; a Lula win would make him the only Brazilian president elected four times.
What happens next
Brazilians vote on Sunday, October 25. Voting is compulsory, and Brazil's electronic voting system usually produces results within hours of polls closing.
Questions people are asking
When is Brazil's presidential runoff?
Sunday, October 25, 2026, between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Who is winning the Brazil election polls?
Most polls show Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead, with an average of about 51% to 49% of valid votes, within the margin of error. A few polls show Lula narrowly ahead.
Can Jair Bolsonaro run in the election?
No. He is barred from running until 2030 and is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence linked to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. His son Flávio is the right's candidate.
