Europe's 2026 summer heat killed 50,391 people, study finds
Heatwaves killed an estimated 50,391 people in 854 European cities this summer — 71% more than the previous record in 2022 — and about two-thirds of the deaths were caused by human-driven climate change, Imperial College London researchers say.
At a glance
- An estimated 50,391 people died from heat in 854 European cities during June, July and August 2026, according to researchers at Imperial College London.
- About 32,619 of those deaths (65%) would not have happened without human-caused global warming, the study found.
- It is the deadliest summer the team has measured, 71% above the 29,480 heat deaths it estimated for 2022.
- Italy, France, Spain and Germany had the highest tolls; more than half of those who died were aged 85 or older.
- The figures are an underestimate: they leave out a deadly May heatwave and cover cities home to only about 40% of Europe's population.
Heatwaves killed an estimated 50,391 people in European cities during the summer of 2026, making it the deadliest summer for heat that researchers have measured, according to a study by scientists at Imperial College London released on Friday, October 23, 2026. About 32,619 of those deaths, or 65%, were caused by human-driven climate change, the researchers said.
The key findings
The study, due to appear in the journal Nature Health, looked at heat-related deaths in 854 cities across Europe from June to August. It compares what actually happened with computer simulations of a world without global warming; the difference is the share of deaths blamed on climate change.
| Measure | Summer 2026 |
|---|---|
| Estimated heat deaths (854 cities, June–August) | 50,391 |
| Deaths attributed to climate change | 32,619 (65%) |
| Previous record (summer 2022, same team) | 29,480 |
| Increase on 2022 | 71% |
| Deadliest spell | June 17 – July 1 (about one-third of deaths) |
| Temperature in that spell | 5.3°C above normal on average |
| Deaths among people 85 and older | More than half |
| Deaths among people aged 20–44 | More than 800 |
Italy, France, Spain and Germany recorded the highest tolls. Some cities were as much as 12°C warmer than normal during the worst days.
How the deaths were counted
Heat rarely appears on a death certificate, so the team estimated deaths statistically. For each city and age group, it found the temperature at which the fewest people die and counted the extra deaths on days above that level. The researchers checked their method against official figures: for heatwaves in the United Kingdom in May and June, they estimated 2,700 excess deaths, close to the 2,800 reported by the UK's national statistics agency.
The researchers stress that the true total is higher. The study leaves out a deadly heatwave in May and covers only cities that are home to about 40% of Europe's population, so smaller towns and rural areas are not included.
Background
Europe is warming roughly twice as fast as the global average. The same team found that the share of heat deaths linked to climate change has risen from about 45% in the early 2000s to 65% today. Earlier work by the group found that Rome had the highest heat-death total of any European capital between 2000 and 2025. In 2022, Europe's previous worst summer, heat killed tens of thousands of people across the continent.
What the researchers and experts said
Lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said much of Western and Northern Europe is not built for the temperatures it now faces, adding that "our infrastructure is just not designed to cope". Co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician, worked on the death estimates.
Independent public health experts said the findings show the need for both adaptation and cuts in emissions. They called for heat early-warning systems, fair access to low-carbon cooling, and neighbourhood programmes that check on elderly people living alone, alongside a faster move away from fossil fuels.
Why it matters
Heat is now one of the deadliest weather hazards in Europe, and it mainly kills quietly — older people, people with heart or lung disease, and those living alone in hot flats. The findings matter far beyond Europe: cities in Pakistan, India and the Gulf face even higher summer temperatures, and South Asia has suffered deadly heatwaves of its own, such as Karachi in 2015. Health systems everywhere are being urged to plan for heat in the same way they plan for floods and storms.
How to stay safe in a heatwave
- Drink water regularly, even if you are not thirsty, and avoid alcohol and heavy meals in the hottest hours.
- Stay indoors or in the shade between late morning and late afternoon; keep curtains closed during the day.
- Check on elderly neighbours and relatives, especially those living alone.
- Watch for warning signs — confusion, very high body temperature, dizziness or no sweating — and seek medical help quickly.
What happens next
The full paper is due to be published in Nature Health. The findings will feed into discussions at the UN climate talks next month, where countries are under pressure to strengthen their emission-cutting plans and to fund adaptation, including heat-health warning systems.
Questions people are asking
How many people died in Europe's 2026 summer heatwaves?
Researchers at Imperial College London estimate that 50,391 people died from heat in 854 European cities between June and August 2026. The true toll is likely higher because the study excludes a May heatwave and rural areas.
How many heat deaths were caused by climate change?
The study attributes about 32,619 deaths, or 65%, to human-caused global warming. In the early 2000s the share of heat deaths linked to climate change was about 45%.
Which countries were worst hit by the 2026 European heat?
Italy, France, Spain and Germany had the highest numbers of heat deaths. The deadliest spell was the June 17 to July 1 heatwave, when temperatures averaged 5.3°C above normal.
