Pagosa Springs evacuated as San Juan River is forecast to top 1911 flood record by 4 feet; Sedona orders residents near Oak Creek to leave
Colorado's San Juan River was forecast to hit 21.84 feet, above the 1911 flood's 17.8 feet, as evacuations spread across Colorado and Arizona on Sunday.
At a glance
- The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, Colorado, was forecast to reach 21.84 feet late Sunday, more than 4 feet above the 17.8-foot crest of the 1911 flood that destroyed most of the town.
- Archuleta County told people in low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers to leave immediately and told everyone else to avoid non-essential travel.
- Sedona ordered residents near Oak Creek to leave, with several people trapped in homes. Camp Verde and Tucson also saw evacuations or swift-water rescues.
- The rain, up to 4 inches, was expected to last through Monday on ground already soaked by last week's floods.
Residents of Pagosa Springs, Colorado, were told to evacuate on Sunday, November 1, 2026, as the San Juan River was forecast to rise more than 4 feet above the level of the 1911 flood that wiped out most of the town. Across the state line in Arizona, officials in Sedona ordered people near Oak Creek to leave immediately as water rose fast and several people were trapped in their homes.
The Archuleta County Sheriff's Office called it a potentially catastrophic flood. The forecast crest, from the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction, was 21.84 feet by about 11 pm on Sunday local time. Whether the river reached that level had not been confirmed at the time of publication.
How this flood compares
| San Juan River at Pagosa Springs | Crest |
|---|---|
| 1911 flood, which destroyed most of the town | About 17.8 feet |
| Last week's flood, October 2026 | About 15 feet |
| Forecast for Sunday night, November 1 | 21.84 feet |
Forecasts had climbed during the day. An earlier estimate put the crest at a little over 20 feet before the afternoon revision. Pagosa Springs, a town of just over 2,000 known for its hot springs and nearby ski resorts, is the worst-threatened community on the current forecast.
Where people have been told to leave
Colorado. Low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers in Archuleta County were told to go at once, and not to wait for the water to rise or for a second warning. The county also issued a shelter-in-place order telling everyone else to avoid non-essential travel. Crews have asked for additional search and rescue teams and for Colorado National Guard equipment. The highway into town was being closed to inbound traffic.
Sedona and Camp Verde, Arizona. Sedona's order covers areas close to Oak Creek. Nearby Camp Verde issued its own evacuation order for residents living beside the Verde River, West Clear Creek and Wet Beaver Creek.
Tucson, Arizona. About 230 miles to the south, flash floods and river flooding led to swift-water boat rescues. No deaths from this round of storms had been confirmed in the reports available when this story was published.
Two or three months of rain in two days
The rain began on Saturday evening and was expected to continue through Monday. The National Weather Service estimates up to 4 inches could fall in parts of the region, fed by a series of Pacific storm systems. A weather service meteorologist in Tucson, Aaron Hardin, said Arizona was getting two or three months of rain in a couple of days.
The danger lies in what came before. Southwestern Colorado has not recovered from flooding that began around October 23, when rooftop rescues took place and Governor Jared Polis declared a disaster emergency in 11 counties. Bridges and roads were washed out then, including a crossing over the Rio Grande near South Fork. The ground has little capacity left to absorb more water.
If you are in the flood area
- Leave when told. Officials in Archuleta County said people should not wait for the water to rise before going.
- Stay off flooded roads. Moving water can sweep a vehicle away, and earlier flood damage may have weakened roads and bridges you cannot see.
- Use the right channels. Follow county sheriff and National Weather Service alerts, and keep 911 calls for real emergencies so that lines stay open for rescues.
- Travellers. Anyone heading to Sedona, Pagosa Springs or the southern Rockies should check state road closures before setting out.
Rain is forecast through Monday. The next key fact is the actual crest on the San Juan River, followed by damage surveys in Pagosa Springs once the water falls.
Questions people are asking
How high is the San Juan River expected to rise at Pagosa Springs?
The National Weather Service forecast on Sunday afternoon was 21.84 feet by about 11 pm. The 1911 flood crested at about 17.8 feet, and last week's flood peaked at about 15 feet.
Why is the US Southwest flooding in November 2026?
A series of Pacific storm systems has brought repeated heavy rain to the region, and the latest round began on Saturday evening. Rivers and soils were already saturated from flooding a week earlier.
