UN report: world will overshoot 1.5°C as current policies point to 2.8°C of warming
The 2026 Emissions Gap Report says emissions must fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to keep overshoot short. The outlook worsened partly because the US left the Paris Agreement.
At a glance
- The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, published October 21, says global warming will overshoot 1.5°C.
- Current policies point to 2.8°C of warming this century; fully delivering national climate pledges would mean about 2.6°C.
- To keep the overshoot small and short, emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025.
- The outlook is worse than last year partly because of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement; COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, starts next month.
The world is now certain to pass the 1.5°C warming limit set in the Paris Agreement, the United Nations said on Wednesday, October 21. Its annual Emissions Gap Report, titled "The Point of Return", says the task now is to keep the overshoot as small and short as possible.
The key findings
| Scenario | Warming this century |
|---|---|
| Current policies | 2.8°C, and still rising after 2100 |
| All national pledges (NDCs) fully delivered | About 2.6°C |
| Lowest-overshoot pathway | Peak of 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, then falling |
The outlook is worse than last year, the report says, partly because of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of past emissions. New national climate plans submitted since the last report have barely changed the picture.
Cuts needed (compared with 2025)
| By | Emissions cut |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 18% |
| 2035 | 45% |
| 2040 | 69% |
For fossil fuels, the report sets benchmarks for cutting their share of energy supply from 2025 levels — for example, coal down at least 55% by 2035 and 75% by 2040, with smaller cuts for oil and gas.
What leaders said
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres: "Overshoot is not surrender." The aim, he said, is to keep it "as small and as short as possible".
- UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen: "Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts," and countries "must pull out all the stops".
Some progress
The report notes real gains since the Paris Agreement in 2015: renewable energy has grown rapidly, coal and oil supply have grown more slowly than once projected, and climate policies have cut emissions in many places. But the pace is far too slow to close the gap.
Why it matters for South Asia
Every extra tenth of a degree means more intense heatwaves, floods and droughts. Pakistan — which suffered catastrophic floods in 2022 and record heat in recent years — is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change despite producing less than 1% of global emissions. Higher warming also threatens Himalayan glaciers that feed the Indus and other major rivers.
What "overshoot" means
Overshoot means global temperatures rise above 1.5°C for a period before being brought back down. That requires cutting emissions very fast and later removing carbon dioxide from the air — through forests, soils or technology — on a large scale. Scientists warn that some damage during an overshoot, such as the loss of coral reefs or ice sheets, may not be reversible even if temperatures fall again.
What happens next
Countries meet at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, next month, where the second global stocktake begins. The report suggests it could set measurable goals for 2035 and 2040, including tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy-efficiency improvements by 2030, moving away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation.
Questions people are asking
Will the world exceed 1.5°C of warming?
Yes, according to the UN's Emissions Gap Report 2026. Even in the best-case scenario, warming is expected to peak around 1.7–1.8°C by mid-century before falling.
How much warming are we heading for?
About 2.8°C this century under current policies, or about 2.6°C if all national climate pledges are fully delivered.
What is COP31?
The UN climate summit due to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026, where countries will begin the second 'global stocktake' of progress under the Paris Agreement.
