Bulgaria election exit polls: Yotova leads Gyurov, runoff on November 1
Exit polls put incumbent Iliana Yotova narrowly ahead of pro-Western Andrey Gyurov in Bulgaria's presidential election, with low turnout making a November 1 runoff almost certain.
At a glance
- Bulgaria voted for president on Sunday, October 25, 2026; five exit polls put incumbent Iliana Yotova first with 32.2–36.6% of the vote.
- Pro-Western economist and former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov was a close second with 31.6–32.4%, a much tighter gap than pre-election polls suggested.
- Pro-Russian Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov was third with 12.6–15.7%; a record 27 tickets were on the ballot.
- Turnout was estimated at only about 22% an hour before polls closed, far below the 50% needed for a first-round win, so the top two meet in a runoff on November 1.
- Preliminary official results from the Central Election Commission are due on Monday, October 26.
Bulgaria's presidential election is heading to a runoff on November 1 after exit polls on Sunday, October 25, 2026, showed incumbent President Iliana Yotova only narrowly ahead of pro-Western challenger Andrey Gyurov. Five polling agencies put Yotova on 32–37% and Gyurov on 32%, with very low turnout ruling out a first-round winner.
What happened
Polls closed at 8 pm local time (11 pm Pakistan time). All five exit polls released at the close put the ticket of Iliana Yotova and her running mate Kiril Valchev first, and the ticket of Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev a close second. The gap between them — as little as 0.6 points in one poll — is much smaller than pre-election surveys, which had Yotova on 41–47% and Gyurov on 28–31%.
| Ticket | Gallup Intl. | Trend | Market Links | Alpha Research | Myara |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Yotova / Kiril Valchev | 36.6% | 36.5% | 32.2% | 35.3% | 35.2% |
| Andrey Gyurov / Georgi Kandev | 31.8% | 32.4% | 31.6% | 32.4% | 32.2% |
| Kostadin Kostadinov / Petar Volgin | 15.7% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 13.4% |
| Radostin Vasilev / Krasimir Manov | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Ivelin Mihaylov / Yuliana Mateeva | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
Source: exit polls published at 8 pm local time. These are not official results.
A record 27 tickets were on the ballot, but no one outside the top three reached 5%. Turnout was estimated at about 22% an hour before polls closed. Under Bulgarian law, a candidate wins in the first round only if turnout is above 50% of the roughly 6.6 million registered voters and they take more than half the valid votes — conditions clearly not met.
Background
Yotova, a former journalist and member of the European Parliament, served as vice-president alongside Rumen Radev from 2017. She became president in January 2026 when Radev stepped down to enter parliamentary politics; he now leads the government as prime minister. She is backed by Radev's Progressive Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the left-wing ABV, favours dialogue with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine. If elected, she would be the first woman voted into Bulgaria's presidency.
Gyurov is an economist, a former deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank and caretaker prime minister earlier in 2026, when he signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv. He is supported by the pro-Western opposition parties We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria. Kostadinov leads the pro-Russian, nationalist Vazrazhdane party.
The campaign, which ran from September 25 to October 23, was dominated by drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea off Bulgaria and Romania, rising energy prices and inflation. The attacks are widely believed to be Russian, but Radev and Yotova have declined to assign blame, saying there is no evidence.
Reactions
The polling agencies noted that the race between the top two was much closer than expected. Opposition leader Boyko Borissov blamed the low turnout on the lack of a unifying candidate. The leading candidates were expected to address supporters later on Sunday night.
Why it matters
Bulgaria's president has limited executive powers but is head of state and commander-in-chief, appoints caretaker governments when parliament fails to form one, and can veto laws and shape foreign policy debate. The runoff is effectively a choice between a Moscow-friendly line aligned with the ruling party and a firmly pro-Western, pro-Ukraine line — a test watched closely in Brussels and NATO capitals as the war in Ukraine spills into Black Sea shipping lanes.
What happens next
The Central Election Commission is due to publish preliminary official results on Monday, October 26. The runoff between the top two tickets will be held on Sunday, November 1, 2026, and a candidate then wins with a simple majority of valid votes. Kostadinov's voters, who lean towards Yotova's position on Russia, could decide the outcome.
Questions people are asking
Who won the Bulgarian presidential election 2026?
No one won outright in the first round on October 25, 2026. Exit polls put incumbent Iliana Yotova ahead of Andrey Gyurov, and the two are expected to face each other in a runoff on November 1.
When is the Bulgaria presidential runoff?
The second round is scheduled for Sunday, November 1, 2026, between the top two tickets, because turnout and vote shares in the first round fell short of the thresholds for an outright win.
Who is Iliana Yotova?
Iliana Yotova is Bulgaria's incumbent president, a former journalist and MEP who served as vice-president under Rumen Radev and took over in January 2026 when he resigned to enter parliamentary politics. She is backed by Radev's Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialists.
