Hurricane Vance: 105 mph storm off Mexico, flood risk for Colima, Jalisco
Category 2 Hurricane Vance is crawling north-northwest about 555 km south-west of Acapulco, and forecasters warn it could bring up to 250 mm of rain, flooding and mudslides to Colima, Michoacán and Jalisco next week.
At a glance
- Hurricane Vance had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) on Saturday, October 24, 2026, about 555 km south-west of Acapulco, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
- It is moving slowly north-northwest at about 9 km/h; gradual weakening is expected through Sunday, with possible re-strengthening from Sunday night or Monday.
- Through Thursday, Vance could bring 75–150 mm of rain, and up to about 250 mm in places, to Colima and western Michoacán and Jalisco, raising the risk of life-threatening floods and mudslides.
- No coastal watches or warnings are in force yet, but the NHC said a tropical storm watch may be needed for part of Mexico's south-western coast.
- Vance is the 21st named storm of an unusually busy 2026 eastern Pacific season.
Hurricane Vance, a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h), was moving slowly towards Mexico's south-western coast on Saturday, October 24, 2026, and forecasters warned it could bring flooding rain to the states of Colima, Michoacán and Jalisco next week. At 9am local time the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the centre about 555 km (345 miles) south-west of Acapulco.
No coastal watches or warnings were in force, but the NHC said a tropical storm watch may be required for parts of the south-western coast later on Saturday or overnight.
Where Vance is and how strong it is
Vance strengthened explosively on Thursday and Friday, going from a tropical storm to near major-hurricane strength in about 24 hours. It briefly reached 115 mph late on Friday before wind shear disrupted its eye and it eased slightly overnight.
| Detail (NHC, 9am CST Saturday) | Value |
|---|---|
| Category | 2 (Saffir-Simpson scale) |
| Maximum sustained winds | 105 mph (165 km/h) |
| Minimum central pressure | 970 mb |
| Position | 12.9°N, 103.0°W |
| Distance from Acapulco | about 555 km (345 miles) south-west |
| Distance from Manzanillo | about 690 km (430 miles) south-south-east |
| Movement | North-northwest at 9 km/h (6 mph) |
| Hurricane-force winds | up to 45 km from the centre |
| Tropical-storm-force winds | up to 240 km from the centre |
The forecast
The NHC expects Vance to keep moving slowly north-northwest through the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast through Sunday, but forecasters said some re-intensification is possible from Sunday night or Monday as the storm reaches warmer water.
The official track keeps the centre offshore through the five-day outlook, but forecasters have stressed that confidence drops sharply after the first day and a half. A weaker storm could drift west-northwest, away from land, while a stronger one would be more likely to head north towards the south-western or west-central coast near Colima and Jalisco.
What Vance could bring to land
Rain: Through Thursday, the NHC expects 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 inches) of rain, with isolated totals near 250 mm (10 inches), across Colima and western Michoacán and Jalisco. It warned this "may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides", especially in steep terrain. Mexico's water commission, which runs the national weather service, also forecast heavy rain in Michoacán and along the Guerrero coast, and showers in Oaxaca.
Surf: Swells from Vance are already reaching the coast of southern and south-western Mexico and will continue into next week, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Waves of 2 to 3 metres were forecast off Guerrero.
Mexico's national civil protection authorities urged coastal residents and tourists to stay away from beaches during high surf and not to cross flooded streets, rivers or streams. No damage, injuries or evacuation orders had been reported by Saturday.
A record-breaking season
Vance is the 21st named storm of the 2026 eastern Pacific hurricane season, one of the busiest on record in the basin, as warm El Niño conditions fuel storm after storm. It follows a long string of powerful hurricanes, including Polo, which reached Category 5 and struck Mexico twice, and Trudy, which became a major hurricane off the Mexican coast earlier this month before weakening.
Each of the season's recent hurricanes has intensified rapidly over very warm water, a pattern scientists have linked to rising ocean temperatures. The Mexican Pacific coast, with resort cities such as Acapulco, Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, has faced repeated rounds of heavy rain and dangerous seas this autumn.
Why it matters
Even if the centre stays at sea, slow-moving hurricanes near the coast can drop huge amounts of rain on the mountains of Colima, Michoacán and Jalisco, where flash floods and landslides are the main danger to life. Fishing fleets, ports and coastal tourism are also affected by the closure of beaches and the heavy swell.
What happens next and safety advice
The NHC issues full advisories every six hours, with updates in between if watches or warnings are posted. Residents and visitors along the coast from Guerrero to Jalisco should:
- Follow official alerts from Mexico's civil protection and weather services.
- Stay out of the sea and away from beaches while warnings of high surf are in place.
- Avoid crossing rivers, streams or flooded roads, and be alert for landslides in hilly areas.
- Keep phones charged and an emergency kit with water, food and medicines ready.
GlobeHourly will update this report as Vance's track and any warnings change.
Questions people are asking
Where is Hurricane Vance now?
On Saturday morning, October 24, 2026, Vance was centred about 555 km (345 miles) south-west of Acapulco and 690 km south-south-east of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving north-northwest at about 9 km/h.
Will Hurricane Vance hit Mexico?
The official forecast keeps the centre offshore for now, but the track is uncertain. Heavy rain and dangerous surf are expected along south-western Mexico, especially Colima, Michoacán and Jalisco, and a tropical storm watch may be issued.
Is Hurricane Vance a threat to Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo?
Both resorts are in the area that could see heavy rain, high surf and rip currents next week. Visitors should follow Mexico's civil protection advice and stay away from beaches during high surf.
