OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets unchanged with Brent near $118, leaving the real fight for November 29
Seven core OPEC+ members left December targets unchanged on Sunday as the Iran war limits exports. Brent is near $118; 2027 quotas are due on November 29.
At a glance
- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman kept December production targets steady at an online meeting on Sunday.
- Brent settled at almost $118 a barrel on Friday, its highest since April, as traders braced for escalation in the Iran war after the US midterms.
- Most Gulf members are pumping well below their targets because of export disruption, so higher quotas would add few barrels now.
- All 21 countries in the group meet on November 29, when analysts expect a decision on 2027 quotas.
OPEC+ will not change its oil production targets for December. Seven core members of the group, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, agreed this at an online meeting on Sunday, signalling no more policy changes before next year while the Iran war keeps much of the Gulf's oil from reaching buyers.
The decision was widely expected. It came two days after Brent crude settled at almost $118 a barrel on Friday, up more than 2% and at its highest since April, as traders prepared for possible escalation after Tuesday's US midterm elections.
Why a production target means little right now
In a normal market, a decision to hold output with oil near $118 would look like a choice to keep prices high. This is not a normal market. Gulf members have been raising exports after months of disruption, but most are still pumping well below the targets they already have. Raising those targets would change almost nothing while ships cannot move freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Today's decision was the easy one," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad. The harder test, he said, comes at the ministerial meeting on November 29.
How the group reached this point
| When | What OPEC+ did |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Core members agree a cut of 1.65 million barrels a day |
| Through 2026 | Output targets raised in stages to unwind that cut |
| May 2026 | The United Arab Emirates quits OPEC, leaving seven in the monthly talks |
| September 2026 | Rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut completed |
| October, November 2026 | Targets held steady |
| November 1, 2026 | December targets held steady |
| November 29, 2026 | Full 21-country meeting; 2027 quotas expected |
A further layer of cuts, about 2 million barrels a day, still covers most members until the end of 2026.
The 2027 problem waiting on November 29
The group has to set new baselines for 2027, and those depend on a review of how much each member can actually produce. The war has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, which has made that exercise harder. The review is now expected to be finished by mid-November.
There is a second puzzle. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters warn of excess supply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal, so a market short of oil today could be oversupplied a year from now. "OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027," Leon said, citing uncertainty over the war, the pace of recovery through Hormuz and the size of the surplus that could follow.
What it means for petrol prices in Pakistan and South Asia
Sunday's decision is unlikely to move pump prices on its own. What matters for importers such as Pakistan, India and Bangladesh is the war and the strait. The crude price feeds through to petrol and diesel, to freight, and to the import bill that weighs on the rupee.
Two things to watch this week could shift prices more than OPEC+ did. Iran's negotiators held a third day of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Sunday, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Hormuz could reopen quickly under a plan with Qatar if Washington meets Tehran's terms. On the other side, President Donald Trump has said there will be no new attacks on Iran before Tuesday's vote but has not ruled out strikes afterwards.
Oil markets reopen on Monday, the first trading session to price in Sunday's decision, with the capacity review due by mid-November and the full OPEC+ meeting on November 29.
Questions people are asking
Did OPEC+ raise oil production for December 2026?
No. The seven core members kept December targets unchanged on November 1, the third month in a row without a change, after holding them steady for October and November.
When is the next OPEC+ meeting?
All 21 members are due to meet on November 29, when analysts expect them to set production quotas for 2027.
