Brazil votes in Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro runoff with final polls at 51–49
Brazilians choose between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday, October 25, after final Datafolha and Quaest polls put Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49% — a statistical tie. Results start at 5pm Brasília time.
At a glance
- Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25, between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Final Datafolha and Quaest polls published on Saturday both put Flávio Bolsonaro on 51% and Lula on 49% of valid votes, within the margin of error.
- Polling stations are open from 8am to 5pm Brasília time (4pm to 1am Pakistan time); the electoral court starts releasing results as soon as voting ends.
- Flávio won the first round on October 4 with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%; no first-round loser in Brazil's democratic history has come back to win a runoff.
Brazilians vote on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro that the final polls call too close to predict. Datafolha and Quaest surveys published on Saturday both put Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, on 51% of valid votes and Lula on 49% — inside the margin of error. Polls open at 8am and close at 5pm Brasília time, and the first official results follow within minutes of closing.
Election day at a glance
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 25, 2026 |
| Candidates | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, incumbent) vs Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) |
| Voting hours | 8am–5pm Brasília time, in every state |
| In Pakistan time | 4pm Sunday – 1am Monday |
| Results | Released by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) from 5pm Brasília time |
| Voting method | Electronic voting machines nationwide |
The final polls
| Pollster | Flávio Bolsonaro | Lula | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha | 51% | 49% | Thursday–Friday |
| Quaest | 51% | 49% | Friday–Saturday |
| CNT/MDA | +1.3 points lead | — | Final week |
Most earlier polls had pointed to a narrow Lula win before the first round, and several surveys this month showed the gap shrinking. Both campaigns say the result will come down to turnout.
How we got here
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%, according to the TSE. Since then, no candidate had a clear lead. Historically, no first-round loser in Brazil's democratic era has come back to win the runoff — the record Lula is trying to break. His campaign has regained some momentum through large street protests and an intense digital push.
The campaign has been bitter. The first televised debate quickly turned into personal insults, while Friday's final debate focused more on the cost of living and corruption. Both sides have also gone to the electoral court: Lula's campaign asked the TSE to annul Bolsonaro's candidacy over alleged unequal treatment by Meta, while Bolsonaro's Liberal Party asked the court to annul Lula's over the use of government data to message voters. Neither case is expected to be resolved before the vote.
The final day of campaigning
On Saturday, Lula marched along Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro and then along Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. He argued that Brazilians want change but "want to move forward", not back.
Bolsonaro spent part of his final day in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, a state that has backed the eventual winner in every presidential election since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s. His supporters see the vote as a chance to return the right to power after his father's 2022 defeat.
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and a key member of the BRICS group alongside China, India, Russia and South Africa. A Bolsonaro win would bring the right back to power and likely shift Brazil closer to the United States and to Argentina's President Javier Milei; a Lula win would keep a leading left-wing voice on climate, the Amazon and South–South cooperation.
The result also matters for global food and commodity markets, as Brazil is a top exporter of soybeans, beef, coffee, sugar and iron ore — including to Pakistan and South Asia.
What happens next
- 5pm Brasília time (01:00 PKT Monday): polls close and the TSE begins publishing results.
- Sunday night (Brasília): a winner is normally clear within a few hours of the close.
- After the vote: TSE investigations into both campaigns continue.
- January 1, 2027: the winner is sworn in for a four-year term.
GlobeHourly will report the result as soon as it is confirmed.
Questions people are asking
When will Brazil's election results be announced?
Polls close at 5pm Brasília time (01:00 Pakistan time on Monday) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) begins publishing results immediately. Because Brazil uses electronic voting, a winner is usually clear within a few hours.
Who is leading the Brazil runoff polls?
The final Datafolha and Quaest polls both show Flávio Bolsonaro on 51% and Lula on 49% of valid votes, which is a statistical tie within the margin of error.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running and is serving a 27-year sentence linked to efforts to overturn the 2022 election.
