Who will be the next UN chief? Grynspan leads seventh straw poll with 11 votes as Turkey enters Sinirlioglu

Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica extended her lead in the race to become the next UN secretary-general on Friday, taking 11 "encourage" votes in the Security Council's seventh informal straw poll. Hours later the field grew again, as Turkey nominated Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and a former foreign minister.

With Antonio Guterres's second term ending on December 31, the 15-member council has two months to agree on a name, and the results so far suggest it is nowhere near that.

The numbers from the seventh straw poll

Candidate	Country	Encourage	Discourage	No opinion
Rebeca Grynspan	Costa Rica	11	4	0
Rafael Grossi	Argentina	9	4	2
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett	Guyana	8	6	1
Lana Nusseibeh	UAE	7	6	2

The ballots are secret and were not officially published, but the results leaked almost immediately, as they have in every round. Grynspan gained two "encourage" votes on the previous round on October 16 and lost one "discourage". Two of her five "discourage" votes that time came from permanent members, according to the campaign group 1 for 8 Billion.

That is the catch. All ballots on Friday were the same colour, so nobody can tell whether the remaining four "discourage" votes include a veto holder. Until coloured ballots are used, a candidate with 11 votes may still be blocked.

Who is Feridun Sinirlioglu?

Born in 1956, Sinirlioglu joined Turkey's foreign ministry in 1982. He was ambassador to Israel from 2002 to 2007, later served as the ministry's top civil servant, was briefly foreign minister in 2015, and was Turkey's UN ambassador until 2023. That year he was also chosen to lead an independent UN assessment on Afghanistan, which matters to Pakistan and its region. He has led the OSCE since December 2024.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's nomination letter, dated Friday, said the choice showed Ankara's commitment to "effective multilateralism" at a time when "trust between nations is diminishing".

Turkey appears to be betting on Erdogan's working relationships with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, whose countries each hold a veto. His obstacles are also clear: disputes with Greece, which holds the council presidency this month, and over Cyprus, and Turkey's strained relations with Israel over the Gaza war.

Why a Turkish candidate is a problem for two campaigns

Many Latin American states and advocacy groups say this is their region's turn under the informal rotation, and many want the first woman in the job in the UN's 80-year history. A late male candidate from outside the region cuts against both arguments, though neither is binding. Grynspan, Michelle Bachelet of Chile and Grossi all make some version of the regional case.

Nusseibeh's weak debut was the other surprise. The former UAE ambassador entered after Senegal's Macky Sall withdrew, and there had been speculation that she had quiet support on the council. Rights groups have criticised her candidacy over the UAE's alleged role in the Sudan war.

Coloured ballots and a dialogue still to come

Further straw polls are expected, likely with colour-coded ballots at a later stage so that permanent members' votes can be identified. Sinirlioglu is expected to appear before the General Assembly in an interactive dialogue, as other candidates have. Once the council agrees on a name, the General Assembly confirms it, and the new secretary-general takes office on January 1, 2027.