US midterms two days out: nearly 50 million have voted, Democrats lead polls by 8 points, and the 11 Senate races that decide control

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, and about 49.6 million had already cast ballots by Friday evening, beating the 45.9 million early-vote record set in 2022 with four days still to go. Democrats go into the final weekend about 8 points ahead in national polls. The House looks likely to change hands; the Senate is the real contest.

All 435 House seats, around a third of the Senate and dozens of governorships are on the ballot. Democrats need 218 House seats to take the chamber and a net gain of four in the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats to 47.

Who is winning the polls

The last Marist poll before the vote, taken October 19-20 among 1,280 registered voters, gave Democrats a 52%-44% lead among likely voters. Independents broke for them by 13 points. The national polling average sits close by, at 51.4% to 43.2%.

For comparison, Democrats led by 9 among likely voters in October 2018, before gaining 40 House seats. Trump's numbers are close to that year's as well: 40% of likely voters approve of him, against 41% then, and 59% disapprove. Among likely voters, 44% say their vote is mainly a vote against him, 21% mainly for him.

Enthusiasm favours Democrats too, with 71% saying they are very enthusiastic against 61% of Republicans.

One forecasting model puts Democratic odds at 95% in the House, with about 236 seats, and 78% in the Senate. Strategists are more cautious on the Senate. A Republican strategist conceded the House looks out of reach but predicted the party would keep the Senate by a seat or two. A Democratic strategist called the chamber only a slight lean to the Democrats.

The early vote in numbers

Early vote as of Friday evening	Figure
Total ballots	about 49.6 million
Cast in person	about 26.8 million
Returned by mail	about 22.9 million
2022 early-vote record	45.9 million
All votes cast in 2022 House races	about 108 million
Registered Democrats (27 states with party data)	10.3 million (43%)
Registered Republicans (same states)	7.5 million (32%)
Other or unaffiliated (same states)	5.9 million (25%)

Texas leads with 6.9 million ballots, ahead of California (5.1 million), Florida (4.7 million), Georgia (2.8 million), North Carolina (2.3 million), Michigan (1.9 million) and Ohio (1.5 million). Turnout is up more than 30% from four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, and 83% in South Carolina.

A caution: party registration is not the same as a vote, and half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on Tuesday, compared with 31% of Democrats. Early totals are likely to flatter Democrats.

The 11 Senate races that decide the majority

Rating	State	Candidates
Toss-up	Maine	Susan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D)
Toss-up	Michigan	Mike Rogers (R) vs Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Toss-up	Ohio	Jon Husted (R) vs Sherrod Brown (D)
Toss-up	Texas	Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D)
Toss-up	Alaska	Dan Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D)
Leans Republican	Iowa	Ashley Hinson (R)
Leans Republican	Kansas	Roger Marshall (R)
Leans Republican	South Carolina	Darline Graham (R) vs Annie Andrews (D)
Leans Democratic	Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire	Seats Democrats want to hold or flip

Recent polls had Talarico leading Paxton 49%-43% in Texas and El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 49%-42% in Michigan, while a Siena poll showed a tie in South Carolina. Single polls this close to a vote should be read with care, but Texas Republicans are visibly nervous: Senator Ted Cruz warned Republicans could lose the state.

Lawsuits and last-minute fights

The final days have been spent in court as much as on the trail. In Alaska, the Justice Department sued to block certification if Peltola wins, arguing that an independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan confused voters; the state's attorney general has moved to dismiss, and a US attorney confirmed a criminal investigation. Peltola denies knowing of any recruitment, though reports link people around her campaign to it.

In California, a federal judge issued an order late Friday stopping the Justice Department from demanding that ballots of alleged noncitizens be set aside and from threatening officials with prosecution. In Michigan, the El-Sayed campaign asked Representative Haley Stevens to stay away from its remaining events after the congresswoman's fiance said he would vote for Rogers.

Rallies on Sunday, results from Wednesday morning in Pakistan

Trump reversed his decision to skip the weekend and will rally in Iowa and then Kansas on Sunday, after six telerallies on Saturday. At a Florida rally on Friday, Trump admitted the pace was taking a toll on the voice.

The first polls close at about 4am Pakistan time on Wednesday, November 4, with Alaska's last polls about seven hours later. Do not expect a quick final answer in close races. Pennsylvania cannot open mail ballots until 7am on Election Day and may be among the last states to finish, and Alaska's ranked-choice count takes days.

Outside America, the date has one more meaning. The Iran war has been waiting on this vote, with reports suggesting new strikes could come as soon as November 4.