US to remove South Africa and Rwanda from AGOA duty-free trade deal from January 1, 2027
The US will end South Africa's and Rwanda's duty-free access under AGOA on January 1, 2027, putting about $1.7bn of South African exports at risk.
At a glance
- The US Trade Representative said on Monday, November 2, that President Donald Trump intends to end South Africa's and Rwanda's membership of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027.
- Trump found both governments engage in practices inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility rules, including barriers to US trade and investment and threats to US national security, USTR Jamieson Greer said.
- South Africa is AGOA's biggest beneficiary: its preferential exports are worth about $1.7 billion a year, mostly vehicles, ferroalloys, jewellery, fruit, nuts, wine and spirits.
- Pretoria has 60 days to argue against removal. Estimates put possible job losses at about 3,000 in farming and manufacturing and close to 10,000 overall.
The United States will strip South Africa and Rwanda of duty-free access to its market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027, the Office of the US Trade Representative said late on Monday, November 2. President Donald Trump has notified Congress and both governments of his intention to end their eligibility.
For South Africa, the programme's largest user, the decision puts about $1.7 billion a year of tariff-free exports at risk, from cars and ferroalloys to citrus and wine. Rwanda's trade with the US is tiny by comparison, but its removal is a pointed political signal.
Why Washington says the two countries no longer qualify
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Trump had found that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa "are engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria". He listed barriers that undermine American trade and investment and that, in Washington's view, threaten US national security.
On South Africa, the administration said it was deeply concerned about trade and investment barriers, corruption, and threats to US national security and foreign-policy interests. Relations between the two have been poor since Trump returned to office: he froze US aid to South Africa, repeated false claims that white Afrikaner farmers face a genocide, and has attacked the country's black economic empowerment laws.
For Rwanda, the US pointed to trade and investment barriers, the rule of law, political pluralism, worker rights and human rights. Kigali's role in the war in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo has strained ties with Washington, although Monday's statement did not name the conflict.
What South Africa stands to lose
AGOA, passed by Congress in 2000, lets eligible sub-Saharan African countries ship more than 1,800 products to the US without paying import duty. It has been renewed to the end of 2028 but each country's eligibility is reviewed every year.
| South Africa | Rwanda | |
|---|---|---|
| Exports under AGOA preferences | About $1.7bn a year (about R28bn) | Small; total US imports from Rwanda were $43.3m in 2025 |
| Share of exports | About 10% of shipments to the US, 1% of all exports | — |
| Main AGOA products | Vehicles, ferroalloys, jewellery, fruit and nuts, wine and spirits | — |
| Total trade with US (2025) | $24.1bn; US is its third-largest partner after China and the EU | — |
| Effective date of removal | January 1, 2027 | January 1, 2027 |
Removal does not shut South African goods out of the US. They will pay the normal US tariff instead of nothing, which hurts most in sectors with thin margins. Citrus farmers in the Eastern and Western Cape and carmakers in the Eastern Cape have been the loudest voices for keeping AGOA, because both compete on price with exporters from countries that pay no duty. Estimates cited in South Africa put the possible job losses at about 3,000 in agriculture and manufacturing, and close to 10,000 across the economy.
The car industry is already under pressure from the tariffs Trump has imposed on imported vehicles, and Pretoria has been trying to negotiate a wider trade deal with Washington. South African officials have floated concessions on US chicken and pork imports as part of those talks.
Pretoria's answer: "Our door to the US is open"
Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said last week, before the decision, that South Africa was prepared for whatever Washington decided and that the US would remain a valued partner. "Diversification is not a rejection of the US," he told reporters after meeting business and labour partners, adding that the economy was resilient.
Tau said his department is pursuing trade agreements with the European Union, Canada, India, countries in Asia and the Middle East, and leaning on the African Continental Free Trade Area to sell more within Africa. Rwanda's government had not commented on the decision by early Tuesday.
How this compares with past removals
The US has used AGOA eligibility as a pressure tool before. In January 2024 it removed Gabon, Niger, the Central African Republic and Uganda, citing coups and human rights concerns. Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea lost their places in 2022. South Africa would be the first major economy to be cut, and the first removal driven mainly by trade and foreign-policy disputes rather than coups or conflict.
The 60 days that follow
US law requires 60 days' notice to Congress and to the country concerned before eligibility ends. South Africa can use that window to submit its case against removal, and officials are expected to push the trade negotiations harder before January 1, 2027. If nothing changes, South African exporters will face standard US duties on their first shipments of 2027.
Questions people are asking
When will South Africa lose AGOA benefits?
The US says South Africa's and Rwanda's AGOA eligibility will end on January 1, 2027. Until then the two countries keep duty-free access, and South Africa has 60 days to make its case against removal.
Does leaving AGOA mean South Africa cannot export to the US?
No. South African goods can still be sold in the US, but they will pay the normal US import duties instead of entering tariff-free under AGOA's list of more than 1,800 products.
