Iran's negotiators leave Doha after three days as a draft US–Iran deal circulates; Trump says Iran may get 'the hammer'

Iran's negotiating team left Qatar on Sunday, November 1, after three days of talks with Qatari mediators, and a draft proposal to end the war with the United States is now circulating for feedback, a regional official briefed on the talks said. A follow-up meeting is being discussed but no date has been set. The official said the delegation did not leave because the talks had broken down.

The draft lands two days before Tuesday's US midterm elections — the date after which Gulf governments have been told American strikes on Iran could resume.

Iran's offer: Hormuz open in two days, on conditions

Tehran's latest position would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within two days if Washington meets several conditions. The first is lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, in place again since mid-July. Iran is also asking for frozen assets to be released and oil sanctions waived.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the two-day timeline shortens an earlier proposal, which offered to reopen the strait over a week and was turned down. He said there are no direct talks with American officials for now, and that whether talks become direct or indirect will be decided only once Washington accepts Iran's conditions. The outcome, he said, depends on US answers to "Iranian questions".

The nuclear programme is the hardest point. Washington wants it covered in any new deal; Iran wants to leave it for later. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said no decision had been made to change the country's nuclear doctrine — but also that the tone from the US had "completely changed", which he called a very good sign. Rezaei received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance last week seeking a framework for talks.

What Trump and his team are saying

Trump has kept both options in public view over the weekend:

When	Who	What was said
Sat, Oct 31	Trump, Florida	US has "knocked out" Iran's nuclear sites except "one or two", which could be hit "in 10 minutes"
Sat, Oct 31	Marco Rubio, G20 meeting in Atlanta	Trump "hasn't made a decision"; the US would prefer to resolve it peacefully
Sun, Nov 1	Trump, Iowa rally	"Either they'll make a deal, or we'll just end it"
Sun, Nov 1	Trump, Iowa rally	"At some point, we're going to have to give them the hammer" — and it will be "over very soon"
Sun, Nov 1	Trump, to reporters	Had a "very good" call with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday; gave no details

Netanyahu's office has not commented on the call. According to reports, the Israeli leader urged Trump to renew attacks right after the midterms, while Trump prefers to let the Doha talks run their course. Netanyahu's bloc lost its majority in last week's Israeli election, and some in the region fear new strikes could help him hold on to power.

Tehran's warning

Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement that "any kind and level of threat" must be met with a response without geographic limits. He has not been seen in public since the February 28 strikes that killed his father. Rezaei warned of "devastating blows" with new weapons if Iran is attacked, and an army spokesman said a new war could last longer than the last one.

The Gulf braces

Neighbouring states are lobbying hard for a deal. Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE president, said the two sides' positions remain far apart and that if they are not bridged, "we have to worry about the worst." Egypt's foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, said another round of fighting would be more destructive "and it will lead to nowhere."

Shipping is already under heavy pressure. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre counted just over 30 attacks on merchant ships in October, about twice September's number, and 145 since the war began. US Central Command says the blockade has turned back 144 vessels. Oil prices fell about 3% on Monday as traders read the Doha draft as a sign that talks are still alive; Brent is still around $109 a barrel.

What it means for Pakistan and the Gulf's workers

Pakistan has been one of the channels between Washington and Tehran, alongside Qatar. A deal that reopens Hormuz would cut the cost of oil imports, which make up the largest part of Pakistan's import bill, and ease pressure on petrol prices that are reviewed every two weeks. A return to war would do the opposite, and would again put at risk the flights and jobs of millions of South Asian workers in the Gulf, where Houthi attacks recently shut Riyadh airport for two weeks.

The days ahead

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3. Iran says it is waiting for the US response to the draft, and the regional official said a follow-up meeting could take place in the coming days. China says its special envoy will visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November.