Oil plunges 6% to about $105 as a draft US–Iran deal circulates; US crude drops below $100 and Wall Street rebounds

Oil prices fell more than 6% on Monday, November 2, as a draft proposal to end the US–Iran war circulated after three days of talks in Qatar. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped to about $105 a barrel by mid-morning in New York, and US crude fell below $100 to around $97. Stocks on Wall Street rose with it, clawing back part of last week's heavy technology sell-off.

It was oil's sharpest daily drop in weeks. On Friday Brent had closed at roughly $113, near the six-month high it reached in late October.

From $113 to $105 in one session

The slide began in Asian trading, when Brent was down about 3% at around $110. It gathered pace once Europe and then New York opened, and the reasons became clearer: Iran's negotiating team had left Doha on Sunday with a draft deal out for feedback, and a regional official said a follow-up meeting was being discussed. Tehran's latest offer is to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its conditions, starting with lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio added to the mood, saying President Donald Trump "hasn't made a decision" to resume strikes and would prefer to settle the conflict peacefully. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran's demands had been set out "very clearly".

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the hopes for diplomacy had taken some of the immediate heat out of prices. Analysts at ING were more cautious, warning that the market may have to wait until the end of the week for anything concrete.

Market	Level (mid-morning, New York)	Change on the day
Brent crude	about $105–106.50 a barrel	down 6–7%
US crude (WTI, December)	about $97–97.70 a barrel	down 6–7%
Dow Jones	about 52,300	up about 1.1% (more than 570 points)
S&P 500	about 7,650	up about 1%
Nasdaq Composite	about 25,700	up about 1.3%

Prices moved quickly through the morning, so levels varied by a dollar or more from one quote to the next.

The risk the market has not priced out

The fall comes one day before the US midterm elections. Gulf governments have been warned that American strikes on Iran could resume after Tuesday's vote, and Trump told a rally in Iowa at the weekend that "at some point" Iran may have to get "the hammer". Attacks on shipping have not stopped either: at least 10 incidents have been reported around the Gulf since October 31, including two tankers that Iran's Revolutionary Guards said hit mines on an unauthorised route.

That is why some forecasters still expect higher prices. Several banks have put year-end Brent forecasts between $105 and $110, and some analysts have warned that a failed deal could send crude back towards $120. October was a big month for oil: US crude rose more than 10%.

Tech stocks bounce after a 5% October slide

The Nasdaq lost 5.2% in October, its worst month since March 2025, after weak results and forecasts from Intel and Amazon raised doubts about the huge sums being spent on artificial intelligence. On Monday buyers came back.

• Amazon rose more than 4% after a broker upgraded it to buy, arguing that strong demand justifies its heavy spending on data centres.
• Nvidia gained nearly 2% and Alphabet more than 2%.
• Oracle fell more than 5% after announcing plans to raise about $20 billion, half in new shares and half in bonds, to pay for its AI build-out.
• Marvell agreed to buy optical-parts maker Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion including debt.
• In Europe, oil and gas shares fell about 1.25% at the open, and French train maker Alstom lost about 31% after cutting its full-year guidance.

Cheaper oil usually helps airlines, cruise companies and anyone whose costs follow fuel, and hurts oil producers.

US factories had a better month than expected

The day's main economic data was strong. The ISM manufacturing index, a survey of purchasing managers, rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, above forecasts of about 54.5. Any reading above 50 means activity is growing, and this was the tenth month in a row above that line. Production hit 59.0, its highest since November 2021. The prices-paid index eased to 75.2 from 77.9 — still high, but a sign that cost pressure on factories cooled slightly.

In Europe, the euro-zone manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, slightly ahead of forecasts.

What cheaper crude means for Pakistan and other importers

Pakistan buys most of its oil abroad, so a $7–8 drop in the price of a barrel matters for its import bill and for the rupee. It does not change pump prices straight away. Fuel prices are set by government notification and follow import costs with a lag, so Monday's fall would only reach motorists if crude stays lower over the coming days. Petrol currently costs Rs377.91 a litre and high-speed diesel Rs402.96 under the rates set for October 31 to November 2.

The same goes for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which all spent October paying the highest crude prices in six months.

Apple, the vote and the jobs report

Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after Monday's close — its first under chief executive John Ternus, who took over from Tim Cook on September 1. Analysts expect earnings of about $2.00 a share on revenue of about $113.5 billion. The new iPhone 18 Pro went on sale on October 23, too late to count in this quarter.

Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The US jobs report for October is due on Friday, November 6, and McDonald's and Qualcomm are among the companies reporting later in the week.