Bayer raises 2026 profit outlook as cancer and kidney drugs beat forecasts; crop science falls short
Bayer lifted its 2026 profit range to €9.8–10.3 billion after pharma sales of €4.68 billion beat forecasts; shares rose up to 5.6% despite weak crops.
At a glance
- Bayer raised its 2026 forecast for EBITDA before special items to €9.8–10.3 billion, from €9.6–10.1 billion, on Tuesday, November 3.
- Third-quarter group sales were €10.05 billion, up 4.1%; pharmaceuticals sales of €4.68 billion were about 5% above analysts' expectations.
- Prostate cancer drug Nubeqa (about €998 million, +58%) and kidney and heart drug Kerendia (€374 million, +65%) led the growth; Kerendia passed €1 billion in annual sales.
- Crop Science, home of the Roundup weedkiller, was weak: adjusted sales fell 2.4% and core earnings of €101 million missed forecasts of €164 million.
Bayer has raised its profit forecast for 2026 after its newer medicines sold far better than expected in the third quarter, offsetting another weak period for the farm chemicals business that has dominated the German group's troubles for years.
The Leverkusen-based company said on Tuesday, November 3, that it now expects EBITDA before special items of €9.8 billion to €10.3 billion this year, up from €9.6 billion to €10.1 billion. Its shares rose as much as 5.6% in Frankfurt trading, extending a rally of about 42% so far this year.
Two drugs carried the quarter
Pharmaceuticals sales reached €4.68 billion, up 8.0% as reported and 6.4% after adjusting for currencies and portfolio changes. That was about 5% above what analysts had pencilled in.
Two products did most of the work. Nubeqa, a prostate cancer treatment, brought in about €998 million in the quarter. Kerendia, used for chronic kidney disease linked to type 2 diabetes and for heart failure, sold €374 million and crossed €1 billion in sales over the past 12 months, making it Bayer's newest blockbuster.
Their growth matters because Bayer's biggest older drug, the blood thinner Xarelto, is losing patent protection in major markets, and sales of eye drug Eylea are under pressure from cheaper rivals. Nubeqa and Kerendia are the clearest sign yet that the pipeline can replace that lost income.
Bayer's third quarter in numbers
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Group sales | €10.05 billion | +4.1% reported, +1.9% adjusted |
| Pharmaceuticals sales | €4.68 billion | +8.0% reported, +6.4% adjusted |
| Nubeqa sales | ~€998 million | +58.3% adjusted |
| Kerendia sales | €374 million | +64.9% adjusted |
| Crop Science sales | €3.88 billion | +0.7% reported, −2.4% adjusted |
| Crop Science core earnings | €101 million | Analysts expected €164 million |
| 2026 EBITDA before special items (forecast) | €9.8–10.3 billion | Was €9.6–10.1 billion |
| 2026 net financial debt (forecast) | €28–29 billion | Cut by €1 billion |
Bayer also raised its target margin for the pharmaceuticals division to 25–27%, from 24–26%. Its forecast for core earnings per share was left unchanged.
The farm side is still a drag
Crop Science, which sells seeds and crop protection products including the Roundup weedkiller, had a poor quarter. Adjusted sales fell 2.4%. Strong demand for corn and soybean seeds in Latin America was outweighed by regulatory effects and bad weather in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and in Asia-Pacific, along with higher selling costs. The division's core earnings of €101 million were well short of the €164 million analysts had forecast.
Roundup remains the shadow over the whole group. Bayer has paid billions of dollars to settle US lawsuits claiming the glyphosate-based weedkiller causes cancer, a claim the company rejects. Investors are now watching for a court to approve a proposed settlement designed to resolve future claims; one major shareholder said approval is expected by the end of the year.
What it means beyond Germany
Bayer is one of the world's largest seed and crop chemical suppliers, including in Pakistan and India, where it sells cotton, rice and vegetable seeds and pesticides. Weaker crop sales and rising selling costs give it little room to cut prices for farmers. On the medicine side, the strong uptake of Kerendia reflects how quickly diabetes-related kidney disease is growing worldwide, including in South Asia.
The cut in expected debt, to €28–29 billion, also matters to investors: the debt piled up after Bayer's 2018 takeover of Monsanto, which brought the Roundup litigation with it. Bayer reports full-year results in early March 2027.
